SURVIVING THE PEACE The Struggle for Postwar Recovery in Bosnia-Herzegovina

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Bosnia Update, Tuesday, July 7, 2026
High Representative Schmidt Resigns; Bosnia in the World Cup.

In the Bosnian press, it is quite common to spot a headline (like this heading above) that ends in a question mark. I tend to ignore the attending article as it is, most probably, non-news. In the present case, the latest High Representative has resigned, and a lingering process hasn't yet selected a new one. Nevertheless, the whole process reveals a lot about Bosnia-Herzegovina's place in the world. So, I discuss.

For those of you who missed a class, the Office of the High Representative was established as a Dayton institution, designating a High Representative from the international community (or part of it), to oversee the implementation of the Dayton agreement and the constitution therein. The High Representative (HR), sometimes called a "viceroy," a "governor," or even a "maharajah," is selected by the Peace Implementation Council (PIC), a body of 55 mostly European states along with Canada, the US, and a few others. The PIC Steering Board makes most of the important decisions for the PIC, and this body comprises 10-odd nations, together with representatives from the EU apparatus. Although Russia is a member of the Steering Board, in recent years it has refrained from participating, because it disputes the legality of the latest High Rep and calls for the termination of the OHR. (There's a lot of politics behind that position, but that's a subject for another blog.)

High Representative Christian Schmidt, a German politician and diplomat, resigned from his position in early May, after a five-year term in office. He was the second longest-lasting HR, after his predecessor Valentin Inzko.

Schmidt's term was marked by increasing tensions between his office and Milorad Dodik, the secessionist president of the Serb-controlled Republika Srpska. Dodik rejected Schmidt's legitimacy on the spurious assertion that he had not been approved by the UN Security Council, which approval is not in fact a prerequisite for the HR's appointment. Russia went along with this position. The ever more strident secessionists from the RS called Schmidt "the German tourist" and regularly expressed threats and insults against him. Overall, Schmidt responded calmly, but promulgated (as is within the HR's powers) several far-reaching laws intended to curtail the Serb separatists' disruptive actions. This turmoil culminated in the removal of Dodik from his office last year—but not from power, since he is still free to operate as the president of his party, the SNSD. That remains the most powerful Serb-controlled party in Bosnia. New nation-wide elections are looming this October, but it's early to make any prediction about the outcome.

One more development that's very relevant to the latest events, as I've discussed in previous blogs, is the US Treasury Department's lifting of all sanctions against Dodik, his family, and his cronies. This is, at least partially, the result of Dodik's expenditure of millions (dollars, KM, euros...) on lobbying for his cause in the US. Dodik—ever the capable politician—saw the commonality between his autocratic ways and the de facto US president; worked against the previous US trend; and, ultimately, prevailed.

In early May, Schmidt announced that he was withdrawing from his position as High Representative, pending the appointment of a replacement, for "personal reasons." He commented that he had hoped to be the last HR, with the realization of "five objectives and two conditions" articulated by the PIC in 2008. Prominent among the objectives is the requirement that the status and disposition of state property, including agricultural, forest, and military holdings, be finalized. This has been an ongoing neuralgic matter, with entities—especially the RS—regularly attempting to privatize public lands without appropriate process (often in favor of "controversial"—read, gangster—businessmen in Dodik's corner), and with the Constitutional Court regularly pushing back against such moves.

Other goals involve strengthened rule of law, fiscal sustainability, and a positive assessment by the PIC. The state of the protectorate is nowhere close to these achievements, nor has Bosnia acted to incorporate any of the half-dozen decisions by the European Court of Human Rights at Strasbourg declaring parts of the Dayton constitution unacceptable under European human rights laws (for that background, see here and here).

It is a natural, inevitable circumstance that the High Representative will have a Sisyphean task trying to enforce the better parts of the Dayton agreement in the face of the self-defeating parts. This dead-end situation provides job security not only to the High Representative, but also to the ethno-nationalist leaders of the country, whose positions were enshrined in Dayton.

In a departing statement, Schmidt called for the implementation of all of the Strasbourg findings and the completion of the 5+2 agenda. He declared that there had been "significant progress in improving functionality of Bosnian institutions," but he also noted continuing political obstruction involving "ongoing deconstruction of the institutional order of country," and "divisive and degrading narratives," especially by RS leaders. These mild words pussyfoot around the scenes of chaos—as I've described in previous blog entries for the last year and a half or so, e.g., here and here—of confrontational rhetoric; blatant racist verbiage against Bosniaks; and long-term blockage of legislative processes.

After Schmidt announced his withdrawal, it did not take long before rumors began to circulate about pressure put upon him by the US administration. Schmidt put out very vague comments that he was "leaving because of pressure from the US administration." In this light, the Democratization Policy Council comments that the US lifting of sanctions against Dodik reflects a significant shift of policy on the part of Trump's administration. What has developed—in harmony with the behavior of the administration in many other aspects—is a purely transactional approach to Bosnia, centering currently on the financial advantage to the US in the construction of the "Southern Gas Interconnection," a gas pipeline that would link up Bosnia with a Croatia supply terminal, thus providing an alternative to Russian gas that is presently the only supply available.

The Southern Gas Interconnection is a project that has been promoted for several years as an alternative to Russian gas. The project has been blocked by internal political feuding, until Trump's men intervened, seeing the opportunity to establish the US as the provider of gas to Bosnia.

This predatory "solution" to a problem that needed solving in a better way is only one manifestation of the shifting US approach to relations with Bosnia, but it is the salient one at present, and the peg upon which the selection of the next High Representative turns.

As background, in a US report to Congress in late May, the State Department announced that "the U.S.-led nation-building era has passed," signaling "a shift toward stability, economic cooperation, energy security, and strategic interests."

If I may break down that last construction:
-- nation-building: Bosnia-Herzegovina is only a "nation" in the minds of some patriots, and not yet a self-sustaining state, but a badly-run protectorate.
--stability: The US has no credentials to talk about stability in the present era. "Stability" refers to the controlled opportunity to implement predatory economic policies.
--Economic cooperation: see preceding line.
--Energy security: Bosnia is to purchase fuel from "us," not "them." Alternative, sustainable energy production is only to be developed by private profiteers, not by the state.
--Strategic interests: See preceding line.

On the other side of these issues, with the looming departure of Schmidt, Russia demanded the closure of the Office of the High Representative, saying that the West "must stop intervening in the internal affairs of Bosnia." The leadership of the Republika Srpska concurred with this imperial expression. Meanwhile, the leadership of the European Union has come out in opposition to the American gas connection plan, saying that Bosnia should not commit to a monopolized US supply of gas, and that the ultimate development of the gas pipeline should be supported by the EU in response to significant progress toward Bosnia's accession to that body. Failing that, the EU warns, Bosnia could lose up to a billion euros in projected aid.

The problem of disposition of state property is relevant here, because construction of the pipeline would necessarily traverse some of the lands controlled by the state. That requires a resolution to the status of the properties involved—preferably, in an orderly way that can also be applied to all state property. No resolution to this long-term problem has appeared over many years because, on one hand, Bosnian loyalists, patriots, and part of the state apparatus favor an organized approach, but meanwhile, the mass of corrupt political operators favor deals that put money in the pockets of their favorite operators. This kind of scheme has been practiced especially in the Republika Srpska, but leaders of the other two ethno-nationalist blocs are not immune to the temptation, not only to personal enrichment, but to selling off pristine land to international mining corporations (see my series on environmental resistance here and here).

In this vein, Schmidt himself has stated that the "lack of resolution of state property has become the greatest obstacle to investment in infrastructure." This is patently true in that, for example, the lack of such resolution creates tangled obstacles to the simple construction of a highway. On the other hand, such a statement can portend intensified exploitation of state land for destructive extractivist practices, freely permitted in spite of state law, in both entities. We've seen this in the creation of environmentally disastrous mines in the Vareš region, for example.

If the choice of who is going to create a new source of greenhouse gas-producing natural gas for Bosnia is between the US administration's profiteering, purely transactional operation and that of the profiteering, but at least slightly less commercially aggressive European Union, the latter is the obvious course. Put this way, it is hardly an attractive choice, given that it is often the ambassadors of the European states who have pressured to gain footholds for Swiss, British, and other destructive mining companies in Bosnia. But it's an obvious choice, on the other hand, when one contemplates the style of the present American regime.

In the process of choosing a new High Representative—still not completed as of this writing—the US administration has made some aims clear. It does not support the use of the "Bonn powers," legal competencies that the PIC granted to the HR in 1997, including the powers to decree laws and to remove public officials from office. These are the concrete abilities for the HR to affect the trajectory of the country, or at least to stay in the game. A good example of that cat-and-mouse dynamic is the above-mentioned removal of RS President Dodik from office, still leaving him effectively in power. The international community can only do so much to ameliorate the entrenched and dysfunctional political infrastructure that it itself designed back in 1995.

In the course of stumbling negotiations for the appointment of the next High Representative, the US and Italy have supported an Italian candidate, Antonio Zandardi Landi, who appears to support US goals. France, Germany, and Britain, on the other hand, supported a French diplomat, Rene Troccaz. Eventually, the European Union allowed that it could support Landi, but only with the guarantee that the Bonn powers must remain available; and that the focus of Bosnia must continue to be on integration into the EU. US negotiators did not express support of these goals.

In counter to EU pressure, the US administration threatened that if it did not approve the PIC's choice of High Representative, it might cut funding to the OHR. Some Europeans responded that this and the resulting lessened role of the US might be a good thing, considering the US support of Dodik.

There are additional, sordid factors in the story of the US intervention in the Southern Interconnection pipeline project. The American company "AAFS Infrastructure and Energy" is on the way to receiving the concession to build the pipeline. This Washington DC-based outfit is run by MAGA attack dog Jesse Binnall, together with Joe Flynn. Attorney Binnall was instrumental in gaining a presidential pardon for the disgraced former national security advisor Michael Flynn, who had lied to the FBI about covert interaction with Russian officials. Flynn has also worked as a lobbyist for the Republika Srpska in Washington DC, earning $100,000 for one month's work. Joe Flynn, an entrepreneur, is Michael Flynn's brother.

In March, Bosnia's parliament officially designated the AAFS as the implementer of the pipeline project, bypassing the tender process. The corruption watchdog Transparency International commented, "Establishing such a practice in a country with one of the highest levels of corruption in Europe would lead to catastrophic consequences in the implementation of strategically important projects such as the Southern Interconnection gas pipeline."

It gets worse. Since former RS president Dodik still has the power to obstruct the pipeline, Trump's operatives found it necessary to enhance their relationship with the autocrat, well beyond lifting sanctions against him. In pursuit of reinforcing relations with Dodik, Donald Trump Jr. visited the RS capital Banja Luka this spring. While Jr. didn't mention the pipeline project, he made his interest clear by advocating for Bosnian purchase of American gas. And Dodik's ambition, as long as Trump has been in power, has been to pledge a "reliable, truthful and Christian [sic] ally in this part of the world." He has made it clear that he will not stand in the way of the pipeline.

At the end of June, unsuccessful in identifying an agreeable new High Representative, the PIC appointed Louis Chrishock as acting High Representative. He was deputy HR under Schmidt, as well as supervisor of the Brčko District. Chrishock is an American career diplomat, and the US strongly supports his temporary appointment, which took effect at the beginning of this month.

Look for a weakening of the OHR in coming months.

A Bit of Relief: Bosnia in the World Cup

The World Cup tournament of football (soccer) teams goes on through July 19. Fans in Bosnia experienced a burst of excitement at the end of March when their representation defeated Italy with a penalty shot. The Zmajevi (Dragons) were going to the World Cup for only the second time, after a weak showing in Brazil in 2014.

On the national level, so few good things happen in Bosnia-Herzegovina that this news was cause for exhilaration and an exuberant march through the streets of Sarajevo, the size of which rivalled that of the recent No Kings marches in the United States.

Of the 26 footballers on the team, 17 of them were born outside of Bosnia, but all of them have Bosnian ancestry. Prominent among them are Edin Džeko (nicknamed "The Diamond), aged 40, the respected elder of the group. He plays for the German Bundesliga, after having played for Manchester City for five years. As a youngster he lived through the siege of Sarajevo, and he began his professional career in 2003.

Then there's Esmir Bajraktarević, who was born and raised in Wisconsin. His parents escaped from Srebrenica early in the war. There are several Bosnian Croats and a couple of Bosnian Serbs on the team as well, including Jovo Lukić, one of the scorers in Bosnia's tie with Canada. And the popular head coach, Sergej Barbarez from Mostar, was raised by a Serb father and a Croat-Bosniak mother.

People from Bosnia and vicinity say, "Futbal je najvažnija sporedna stvar na svijetu," – Football is the most important marginal thing in the world. Given that the history, the competitive record, and the spectacle are laden with symbolism, the game and its goings-on can't help but be important to ordinary people who love or hate the game (or both in varying measures).

Probably the first question that the success of Bosnia's representative team brings up for people who consider themselves Bosnian—and for people who are from Bosnia, even live in Bosnia, but don't consider themselves Bosnian—is, what does this mean to you?

The responses locate all along the spectrum. The mostly loudly proclaimed one is "Yes! I love Bosnia and I love our team, and I want them to go all the way." This sentiment is found among the majority of Bosniaks, who by far hold the least secessionist inclination. Among the Croats and Serbs, the response tends to reflect the dominant politics of each ethnic group's leaders. Nebojša Vukanović, opposition politician in the Republika Srpska, says, "I support the Serbian team. You can't love two women. But I'm glad if the Bosnians win." Milorad Dodik was not particularly interested in the team, but he said, "Ok, our guys won," and that they should be supported. Among ordinary Serbs in the RS, the response is obscure, because most of those who are happy about the team's progress keep their heads down, in an entity that is currently trying to outlaw the historic Bosnian flag with the medieval lily symbol.

It's similar in the Croat-controlled sections of the Federation, where the leaders claim that Bosnia is the genuine home of its Croat population and they advocate for EU membership, but they simultaneously, in covert ways, also advocate a brand of Croat separatism. Zdenko Lučić, Croat opposition candidate for president in the upcoming national elections, said that he was bothered because his rival was rooting for the Bosnian team. He said, "Croats should root for the Croatian team."

There are people who say that "this is one of the rare things that can bring us together," while others say that this marginal activity will have no political effect. Evaluation by commentators varies depending on their leanings and mood. The stalwart columnist Gojko Berić says that there's no way that soccer can bring people together, when "even fishing associations from the different ethnicities don't want anything to do with each other." And the author of Surviving the Peace: The Struggle for Postwar Recovery in Bosnia-Herzegovina" called sports "the continuation of war by other means." Plenty of incidents in the postwar history of Bosnia illustrate this, sometimes in the most bloody manner.

On the other hand Arminka Helić, a British politician born in Bosnia, proclaimed that the Zmajevi had done what the domestic political elite and the international community had failed to do for decades: they gave Bosnian citizens back a belief in a common state and future.

In any case, in Sarajevo, Zenica, Tuzla, and the rest of the Bosniak-dominated part of the country the euphoria was strong, as people planned their travels and paid for exorbitant tickets to St. Louis (where there was a friendly game with Panama), to Toronto for a contest with Canada's team; to Los Angeles for a match with Switzerland; to Seattle with Qatar; and finally, to the Bay Area for a match with the US. Bosnians streamed to North America from their homeland and many other parts of the world to participate, engendering what witnesses called the biggest fan base they had witnessed during the present series.

Adding to the celebration was the revival of a popular song composed by the prominent Bosnian ska group Dubioza Kolektiv which they had recorded back in 2011, starting with the rather absurd English lyrics,
I am from Bosnia, take me to America
I really want to see Statue of Liberty
I can no longer wait, take me to United States
Take me to Golden Gate, I will assimilate…

The song has a catchy, memorable and upbeat tune, and it was recycled and sung non-stop between March and the present, making the Zmajevi one of the only teams with its own theme song. People were filmed singing it around the world.

I recommend that you read a thorough discussion of the song, its background as relevant to the sports excitement, and how it turns out to be tongue-in-cheek, ending in an admonition.

Lyrics toward the end of the song:
I hoped I′d find what I need, I’ll be free like a bird
Now we’re pushed in a ghetto like a sheep in a herd
All the promises I heard became empty words
Completely disconnected from the rest of the world
The grass is never greener in neighbor′s courtyard
I want to start all over, return to no man′s land
Send greetings to your leader, don’t want your green card
I want to fly back like a rocket to the Balkans…

You can find the article, "I am from Bosnia - The Misunderstood World Cup Song"
by Ivana Dragičević, here.

In each city where there was a match, thousands of Bosnians converged and filled the streets in the most high-spirited way. The height of the extended, patriotic celebration, after the tie in Toronto and the loss to Switzerland, took place in Seattle. There, at 9:00 a.m., at least 5,000 fans—overwhelmingly Bosnian—gathered to march the mile-plus distance to the stadium on a lovely day. They were massively dressed in the national blue and yellow colors, carrying the Bosnian state flag in those colors, or the historic one with lilies.

Unexpectedly, a local brass band composed of earnest musicians with no direct Bosnian roots showed up to take part in the celebration. Somewhere, they had learned some Bosnian kolos, Sevdalinkas, and even "I am from Bosnia," which they played four or five times in the course of the fan march. Apparently not even knowing how they would be received, they were welcomed joyously, without question, by people who sprang into the dance line whenever the band played the kolo, and who sang along with "I am from Bosnia." (See footage here and here.)

One American fan was spotted wearing a T-shirt that read, "I am from America, take me to Bosnia." Another's read, "My wife is Bosnian."

The Zmajevi won the match, placing them in the second round of the tournament, against the US. The following week, the latter team won, ending the Bosnian team's travels.

I really hate to end this section on anything other than a celebratory note, but after the jubilation of the Bosnian team's success, things return to the uncomfortable normal. Milorad Dodik celebrated Bosnian's final loss, saying, "Thank you, America...tomorrow is a work holiday." And one fan, from a Bosniak returnee family in the Republika Srpska, lamented that, when he went to drive into Zvornik to commemorate Bosnia's games, there was a police cordon at the city limits preventing people from coming into the town to celebrate.

I recommend two other fine pieces of writing, the first one by the prominent journalist Ed Vulliamy, who distinguished himself during the war as one of the first reporters to discover the Serb-run concentration camps in the Prijedor area. He has never lost touch with Bosnia, and he wrote the essay, "I am from America / Take me to Bosnia!" You can read it here.

And finally, read the heartfelt letter by Edin Džeko, "A letter to the children of Bosnia." Džeko reflects on his wartime childhood, his postwar hopes and his unexpected stardom, encouraging young people to hold onto their hopes. He writes,

In the end, we survived. Looking back, I’m amazed at how strong we were. We were just little kids. But there was no point to the war. All those innocent people killed, and for what?

For money. Power. Ego.

For nothing.

When there is war on the news today, I feel sick.

I don’t want to see it anywhere.

For some reason, adults never learn.

/snip/

I’m playing for my people. I’m playing for the boys and girls in the streets of Sarajevo. I’m playing for all the different cultures and religions that make our country so beautiful, even if some people are still trying to break us apart.

They will never succeed.

Not because of me. Not because of the adults. We never learn. It’s because of you kids.... You never change.

So do me one final favour, OK?

Whether you live in Sarajevo, or Rome, or St. Louis.... Whether you are Muslim or Jewish or Catholic or Orthodox....

Never forget where you came from.

Read it here.