SURVIVING THE PEACE The Struggle for Postwar Recovery in Bosnia-Herzegovina

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Bosnia update, November 13, 2024
Floods ~ Municipal Elections ~ High Representative vs. equal rights...

Welcome to this 45th edition of my "Bosnia blog." This blog focuses primarily on what passes for news in the public sphere in Bosnia-Herzegovina, and I’ve been maintaining it since my book, Surviving the Peace: The Struggle for Postwar Recovery in Bosnia-Herzegovina, came out in November 2019. This entry thus celebrates the fifth anniversary of the blog and the book.

I also write a journal, much less frequently—only when I’ve been traveling. Since I was just in Bosnia for three weeks, I’ll post that journal soon. You can see my other travel journals, and articles going all the way back to the 1990s, here. Most of this material pertains to Bosnia, Kosovo, Serbia, and the former Yugoslavia.

In the last couple of months since my previous blog entry, a couple of newsworthy events have happened. First, there was a very damaging flood in central Bosnia and northern Herzegovina, early in October. Around that same time, municipal elections took place across the country.

Meanwhile, the fact that a fascist candidate has taken the presidency in the United States is cause for worry—and for some people, celebration—throughout the former Yugoslavia. Let’s review some responses to that development, for starters.

Responses to US Elections

In the Serb-controlled entity the Republika Srpska (RS), President Dodik held a cocktail party in celebration of the US election results. In the state "palace," lit up with the colors of the American flag, Dodik was seen wearing the red MAGA baseball cap. He proclaimed, "This is also our victory. This means that we in the RS will have a greater chance to express our point of view in the centers of power."

Not one to miss an opportunity to make a political point, opposition member and mayor of Banja Luka Draško Stanivuković assailed Dodik for celebrating the US electoral results, saying, "This represents the depths of servility and humiliation. Remember that they bombed us (NATO, led by the US, during the 1990s war). I congratulate the winner, but we will only use our own symbols here as long as I am mayor."

Leader of the "pro-Bosnia" party Željko Komšić, ostensibly a dedicated anti-nationalist, also congratulated the winner, calling the US elections a "festival of democracy." In neighboring Serbia, President Vučić rejoiced, saying, "I have good relations with the next president, and we expect that the voice of Serbia will be heard better. But we don't expect big changes." The day after the US election, an extreme nationalist group posted placards in Belgrade and several other cities reading, in English, "Make Serbia Great Again," showing a photo of the next president together with Mr. Musk.

On the other hand, long-time commentator Daniel Serwer of the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies provided the most dire of predictions of what he thinks could take place in short order: that NATO will be disbanded or become powerless; that it will become easier for Serbia to take over part of Kosovo and for the RS to secede; and that the new president may appoint Richard Grenell as his Secretary of State or in some other powerful position.

This last point particularly comes to mind as Grenell was the next president's ambassador to Germany and, simultaneously, his envoy to the former Yugoslavia. In that capacity he worked hard to arrange a land swap between Kosovo and Serbia; had he succeeded, that move would likely have set off a war in Bosnia as the RS took it as a signal to secede. It didn't happen then, but it could be in the offing.

On the other hand, the US Embassy released a statement saying that US policy with regard to Bosnia will remain consistent.

And on the day that Dodik was wearing his MAGA hat, the US Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), part of the Treasury Department, levied new sanctions on cronies of Dodik and his family. One new person under sanctions is the figurehead director of a company controlled by Dodik's son Igor. Several other companies that were registered after earlier sanctions took place, to avoid the brunt of those sanctions, were also targeted.

OFAC stated that Dodik and his associates are in focus because he is "still using his position to destroy public trust in the framework for regional peace and in the institutions that stabilize Bosnia-Herzegovina." As I have described in my September blog entry, companies that Dodik's friends and family formed after earlier companies were sanctioned are still deprived of a functioning bank account.

Floods

In early October, torrential rain in several parts of the country caused flooding and great damage. The flooding was not as extensive as that of 2014, but it was massive enough to rip up railroad lines and roadways, and destroy villages and homesteads, especially in and around Donja Jablanica, Konjic, and several other central Bosnian towns. Three people lost their lives near Fojnica, nearly 20 were killed in Donja Jablanica, and several more near Konjic. Three months' worth of rain fell in less than 24 hours. The flooding was particularly dangerous because it started in the midnight hours, while people were sleeping.

If you know Bosnia-Herzegovina, you know that that central part of the country is all mountains, and the towns and villages are in the valleys and partway up the slopes. Given this, all of these settlements are susceptible to flooding under certain conditions. The greatest cause of increased, epochal rainfall is climate change. But poor forest and quarry management also contribute significantly to the danger.

Donja Jablanica was particularly hard hit when tons of sand and mud came down upon the village. It happened that above that settlement there was an abandoned rock quarry that had long been neglected. The company that had worked the quarry had not undertaken damage prevention in the decade since the quarry stood inactive; the local civil defense agencies were also negligent. Such is the case, in fact, with the hundreds of quarries to be found around the country.

The outsized damage suffered in Donja Jablanica prompted an outcry and accusations of a scandal pertaining to the quarry. Experts who performed autopsies on some of the victims stated that they had not drowned, but were smothered by mud and debris. However, the experts were not willing to ascribe all blame to the neglected quarry, as there were places nearby where people had been killed in the same way, where there was no quarry.

In any case, the mountains of Bosnia are dotted with quarries, as it is a convenient way to obtain construction material for roads and other infrastructure. Lack of appropriate maintenance of the quarries compounds the potential for storm damage.

Another factor in the floods has been poor forest management. There are woods that have been harvested and not replanted, and there are other forests that were reduced by fires, and never restored. Without trees stabilizing the mountainsides, the slopes are so much the more susceptible to fissures, landslides, and flooding.

Another problem is poor management of debris that collects by the riversides, especially branches and, often, garbage. When flooding takes place, much of the damage comes from that debris being washed downstream and knocking over vehicles, houses, barns, and other buildings along the way. After the early October floods the beautiful Neretva, which starts in central Bosnia and rushes down through Herzegovina to the Adriatic Sea, was reported to be "unrecognizable," full of garbage and flowing brown, not its usual green.

The head Imam of the Donja Jablanica community barely saved himself and his family by climbing up on the roof of the submerged mosque, where they awaited rescue. A pregnant woman in the village of Zlata was killed when a tree fell on her.

Rescue teams swarmed into the afflicted areas, searching out victims and trying to save some of them under the rubble. Restoration will take great resources and a lot of time; key roads from Sarajevo to Herzegovina were blocked for a few days, and some villages were unreachable for longer.

On one  bright note, sports fan clubs that are customarily rivals—even to the point of committing hooligan violence—set aside their enmity and cooperated in the rescue and clearing efforts. The Horde Zla; Hooligans; Manjake; Red Army; Ultras. Robijaši, Fukare, Fanaticosi, Vandali, and others practiced solidarity—often across ethnic lines—by helping directly in the flooded areas.

There were reports of low-level corruption; as humanitarian aid was rushed in, it was delivered to those in need. But after a couple of days, there were reports of people who had lost nothing filing claims for emergency assistance.

*

In a related situation, there has been an outsized building project taking place on a prominent slope above Sarajevo, on Mt. Trebević. The mountainous nature of the country makes it tempting for developers to grab places with outstanding views and build on them, without regard to the environmental consequences. The project in question is called "Trebević Hills," and its burgeoning structure is visible from just about everywhere in the city. It has created an eyesore above Sarajevo for several years, and it still looks only half-built.

You can look up the plans and designs of "Trebević Hills" on the internet. There look to be about a dozen floors, with perhaps 75 apartments and offices on each floor. Trebević Hills is characterized as a "luxury" installation. The building site is located across the inter-entity boundary in the RS, but it is moments by car from the center of Sarajevo.

When I first saw the construction site a few years ago I asked who the investor was, and I was told that it was "the Arabs." This is conjecture; a clear answer has yet to emerge. It could just as well be "the Russians," or even some domestic consortium of money launderers.

In the wake of the disastrous floods in central Bosnia, people raised an alarm about several environmental problems related to the construction. There are apparently large deposits of building debris, and cleared brush, sitting unmanaged below the Trebević Hills complex. This debris is blocking the sides of various streams running down the mountain, including Bistrički Potok (immediately above the Bistrik neighborhood) and other waterways coming down through the Širokača neighborhood.

All of these waters end up in the Miljacka River, which runs through the center of Sarajevo. People are worried by the possibility of a torrential rainstorm—say, the size of the one that fell in central Bosnia—washing the debris down the hill, blocking the streams, and causing flooding and havoc in the middle of Sarajevo. There are fissures on the slopes between Trebević Hills and the city, and these could turn into landslides.

In early October, Sarajevo was lucky to escape the quantity of rain that fell in central Bosnia. One expert asserted that any serious flooding event in the surrounding mountains, with accompanying landslides, could end up with "half of the city in the Miljacka." He stated that the problem is not only with the Trebević Hills construction, but also in other parts of the mountains surrounding Sarajevo, since there are numerous rock quarries and unmanaged forests, with the same conditions that caused great damage in central Bosnia.

One problem is that the restoration of the slopes requires permits from the Republika Srpska, since part of the land that needs attention is in that entity. But the RS has been slow in granting any such permits.

Agencies from the city, canton, and Federation level have met to create an action plan to safeguard the people of Sarajevo and to pressure the RS to clean up the dump sites under Trebević Hills. A civil defense finding concluded that the builders must stop dumping below the construction and clean up dump sites; they must create drainage waterways to control flooding; and they must clear downed trees and debris away from the stream banks. The Canton is also creating an emergency evacuation plan for Sarajevo, and is sending observation drones above the slopes every day to monitor developments.

Schmidt

The Office of the High Representative is an institution created to implement the Dayton peace agreement. It is currently headed by the German politician Christian Schmidt, who has been in office since mid-2021. Since Schmidt has taken charge of the OHR, he has performed a notably more robust role than his long-time predecessor. He has decreed several laws, especially pertaining to electoral functions, corruption, and respect for the Constitutional Court. None of these decrees has particularly borne fruit, as of yet.

Over the years, Serb nationalist leaders have opposed the OHR and called for its abolition, seeing the institution as an "occupying force" and a brake on the Serb-controlled entity's move toward secession. On the other side, "pro-Bosnia" leaders (mostly Bosniak) have supported the OHR, seeing it as a force for the preservation of the integrity of Bosnia-Herzegovina and a promoter of rule of law.

Of late, actions undertaken by HR Schmidt have aroused serious disapproval among pro-Bosnia actors. Schmidt's bizarre intervention at the time of the 2022 elections stands out—see my comments from the October 10, 2022 blog entry, More recently, Schmidt intervened in an appeal to the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) at Strasbourg in the case of Kovačević v. Bosnia and Herzgovina.

You'll recall from my September 18, 2023 blog entry that the Sarajevo-based political scientist Slaven Kovačević filed a complaint with the ECHR about the fact that the Dayton constitution does not allow a voter living in the Federation entity to vote for any candidate in the Serb-controlled entity, and vice-versa. The geographical separation of ethnicities amounted to a system of discrimination that means, as I wrote, that "a Serb who lives in the Federation cannot vote for a Serb candidate for president, since that candidate is selected in the RS. Nor can she run for the presidency or a seat in the House of Peoples. It's the same in every direction: A Bosniak or Croat living in the RS cannot vote for a Bosniak or Croat presidential candidate, respectively, nor can their ethnicity be represented by a delegate to the state-level House of Peoples from that entity. Neither do they have the possibility of running for office in those bodies as "minority" ethnicities in the wrong entity."

In the September 2023 blog I mentioned all the previous cases examined by the ECHR, each of which found that the Dayton constitution discriminated in various ways and did not conform to European Union standards. The Kovačević ruling went further than the earlier ones, as it dealt with voters' rights, and not only with those of the potential candidates. None of the earlier findings have been incorporated in Bosnian law over the 15-year period since the first case was adjudicated.

In the present case, the ruling coalition of profiteer/politicians, who are comfortable keeping the country's ethnicities at odds with each other, have appealed to the ECHR to rescind its ruling. The appeal drags on—and to the shock of many people, HR Schmidt submitted an evaluation to the ECHR calling for the annulment of the court's decision in the Kovačević case. He argued that confirmation of the 2023 ruling would be "divisive, impede efforts to bring the consitution into conformity with previous ECHR rulings, and would threaten a precarious and fragile situation."

In fact, as commentator Kurt Bassuener has noted, such a reversal would "secure the grip of the ethnonationalists and other political parties and leaders who are responsible for ensuring that precarious conditions endure" in Bosnia, and it would "stifle the potential for democratic evolution." See Bassuener's excellent article here.

While many pro-Bosnia figures still assert that the OHR's continued presence in Bosnia is crucial, more and more people are exasperated with Schmidt and would like to see the back of him. Several hundred staged a protest rally in front of the OHR building in mid-October. The present controversy, along with several other disagreements, has significantly reduced Schmidt's popularity.

Elections

Nationwide elections at the municipal level took place throughout Bosnia-Herzegovina on Sunday, October 6. Some 26,000 candidates ran for office, in front of 168 political parties. There were said to be 3.4 million people eligible to vote. This is a bit incomprehensible, since there are not that many people living in Bosnia. The figure has to include the diaspora, which is said to add 45,000 voters. Far fewer than that number from the diaspora ever vote.

Discussing the upcoming elections, sociologist Esad Bajtal commented, "The worst layer of society take away the [electoral prize] in one election after another. The worst people are leading society; they are the ones who decide...everything is resolved on the principle of force and power, on the logic of blood and soil. That is the case, unfortunately, in spite of the fact that it renders the life of the average citizen of Bosnia-Herzegovina meaningless. Among us on the scene are criminal ethno-bands, who falsely represent themselves as political parties. What kind of morality can you expect from these gangs, what kind of dignity, what kind of system of values? Force, power, murderers, criminals, convicts—that is what ends up on the ballot lists."

Bajtal refers to the many cases of convicted war criminals whose popularity among their constituencies is such that they return regularly to office. One of these is convicted war criminal Fikret Abdić "Babo," who has run the area around Velika Kladuša in the Krajina as his own fiefdom for decades. Both of the main candidates for mayor in Sokolac (in the RS) are or have been under investigation for corruption and for assisting fugitive war criminals. The mayor of Vlasenica, running for re-election, is accused of war crimes and was convicted in a first-instance court in Zvornik of kidnapping.

Then there are manifold run-of-the-mill corrupt practitioners who have either been convicted, or are under prosecution, for various abuses. One blatant case is that of Ibro Berilo, who ran for re-election to the office of mayor of Trnovo—while incarcerated for blatant corruption. He won the office. This phenomenon extends to all ethnicities; a Croat candidate for mayor of Kiseljak, Mladen Ramljak, was found guilty of "abuse of office" (read: corruption) in 2017.

Bajtal was not grumbling idly.

In my April blog entry I described how High Representative Schmidt had just decreed more than 100 new rules designed to clean up the electoral process. These included banning the candidacy of convicted war criminals; expanded prohibition of misuse of public funding; allowing all citizens to review the voter rolls; balanced sex representation in the Central Elections Commission (CIK); enhanced safety measures for election materials; greater access for disabled people; opening a special account for financing of campaign; expanding the definition of hate speech and media rules; greater sanctions for political subjects and individuals who have broken the rules, and much more.

In the runup to the elections, nearly endless antics and infractions were reported. A candidate for mayor of Kalinovik posted a photo of himself wearing a WWII Chetnik uniform. For this, he was fined 10,000 euros for hate speech and for glorifying convicted genocidaire Ratko Mladić. He apologized and withdrew from the race.

The leading Serb nationalist party, SNSD, was fıned for insulting LGBT persons. The Central Election Commission (CEC) levied hundreds of fines in various cases of disrespecting campaign rules. There were numerous reports of party activists paying people to vote a certain way. In Brčko several people were arrested for this.

In a survey, over 70% of respondents stated that they did not believe the elections would be fair; more than a quarter of them had witnessed vote buying.

During the election, pilot projects to implement new technology decreed by Schmidt (including i.d. scanners and fingerprinting to identify voters) were established at several hundred of the nearly 7,000 polling stations. It was reported that voting at these locations took place in a more orderly fashion than at the rest of the stations. One change was that voting booths were arranged so that members of the polling station committee could observe the behavior of the voters.

One violation was "family voting," where more than one member of a family goes into the booth to vote. Instances of this behavior were reported at some 30% of polling stations. Another violation is taking a photo of one's ballot after it is filled out, which photo would then be used as proof that a voter had earned his or her bribe for voting as directed. In Banja Luka a policeman was caught taking a photo of his own ballot; someone from the polling station took a picture of him in the act, and turned him in. He was "disciplined" for this act.

There were also cases of the "Bulgarian train," where a voter would go to vote at successive polling stations.

Harassment and intimidation of electoral observers was also widespread; in Doboj, a candidate for mayor arrived at a polling station visibly drunk, and punched one of the observers, knocking him out. In East Sarajevo (in the RS) one polling station member was seen telling a voter how to vote; when another member complained, the first one threatened him. That person ended up being fined for disturbing the peace.

In Srebrenica the elections proceeded as they had in 2016 and 2020, dominated by visitors from neighboring Serbia who voted with "tendered" ballots, which had to be checked afterwards for their authenticity. Their votes ensured that a new Serb nationalist candidate won the mayoral race.

There were two dozen polling stations in the large municipality of Srebrenica. Republika Srpska vice-president Ćamil Duraković, a native of Srebrenica, reported that Srebrenica was "full of cars with Serbian license plates... as if the elections were happening in Serbia." There were voters from at least ten Serbian towns, all the way to Belgrade. Parking was scarce in the area around the special polling station for tendered ballots. A local resident said that few of these people lived in Srebrenica, and that they had no relationship with the municipality: no property, no rental contract, and no bills: "They are deciding the election."

The RS regime has long since figured out how to avoid a repeat of the pro-Bosnia victory of 2012 (see my book for a description of that episode). The situation in Srebrenica is worse than ethnic dominance; it runs toward complete economic devastation of a municipality which is actually rich in resources. Even if a few Serb-nationalist profiteers were allowed to launder money and re-start tourism there, the local economy would be revived. But as it is, the population continues to go down. The reported 14,510 registered voters must include a sizeable portion of those buried in the Potočari memorial cemetary.

Finally, elections were postponed for a couple of weeks in Donja Jablanica, Fojnica, Konjic, and several other places due to flooding.

Overall, there were numerous reports of verbal or physical attacks, but they only resulted in brief interruptions of the electoral process in a given location. Here and there someone destroyed some electoral documents, and there were a few cases of shortage of ballots. The Central Election Commission ultimately deemed the election a "very customary day," and High Representative Schmidt commented that the measures prompted by his decreed electoral rules are "only the first phase of reforms." Let's hope so.