SURVIVING THE PEACE
The Struggle for Postwar Recovery in Bosnia-Herzegovina
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Bosnia update,
September 12, 2022
Overview; Electoral reform (again); Israel and Bosnia; "Crims in charge;"
Elections.
Bosnia-Herzegovina's national elections are approaching. The campaign period
started on September 2—that is, if you don't count the entire period of
politicking since the last elections two years ago. Citizens in and out of the
country will vote for their parliamentary representatives and various presidents
and vice presidents of cantons, entities, and the state, all up and down the
ticket. What follows in this blog entry is context for the October 2 elections:
an overview of conditions in the country; some discussion of ongoing electoral
law controversies, and a small assortment of antics on the part of various
politicians.
Overview
In an interview in early August, activist Edin Ramulić
of Prijedor criticized
anti-democratic practices on the part of politicians and the media that they
control, saying, "In recent years we are more and more subject to the damaging
influence from the larger centers, Belgrade, Banja Luka, but also Sarajevo.
There are attempts to destroy good relationships between people and to nullify
all the positive practices that we have established in confronting past
[injustices]. One such group of extremists from Sarajevo is doing work identical
to those on the other side. On the whole the media, sympathetic to those groups,
more eagerly provide space to nationalist outbursts by politicians than to
examples of good relations among people of different identities. The media thus
give the main power to the nationalists, and in the worst case, to the masters
of war. That is the way it was in the 1990s."
You'll remember my assertion from
two blog entries ago (June 19, 2022) to the effect that there's not as much
news in Bosnia as there seems to be, but that there are trends that could lead
to bad news. Mr. Ramulić
illustrates this point thus:
"...what is really worrisome is that domestic politicians, at least these in
Bosnia-Herzegovina, have less and less room to maneuver in preserving their
power. Increasing debt and the constant outflow of the population are leading
this country to bankruptcy. They [the politicians] remain in power only by
constantly producing crises and fear of other peoples or states. The problem is
that here there exists a limit; the constant opening of war wounds and
provocation of ethnic intolerance could escalate, and turn into a series of
incidents that would trigger reprisals and more serious incidents that no
government would be able to control anymore. Generations of younger people have
been produced that have the potential for hostility; in three days propaganda
can produce future sadists in concentration camps. In the 1990s three months of
propaganda were necessary for "brotherhood and unity" to turn into fratricide."
[1]
This dark scenario is never to be ruled out. But on the other hand, there is the
question, who would fight a war? Are there really enough young men who can be so
manipulated, when so many have left the country, and many others still carry the
lesson of the 1990s with them? Meanwhile, it's also the case that, at least for
the time being, the politicians are able to preserve their power, and enhance
their wealth, via relatively peaceful means. In the long run, of course,
division, provocation, and plunder will not be able to be a successful strategy
in a country like Bosnia. This becomes evident when you note that Bosnia is, as
reported recently, the leading country in the world in population loss. Nearly a
half million people have left the country since the 2013 census, amounting to a
reduction of around 1.5% of the population annually. In 2021 alone, some 170,000
people left. Add to that a relatively low fertility rate. Elementary school
classes in smaller towns and villages are emptying out, and skilled workers are
leaving. There is a possibility that there will be a shortage of workers in the
education and health sectors soon, and skilled laborers are already in short
supply. [2]
In a recent blog entry (around September 12), US Ambassador to Bosnia Michael
Murphy provided other background to Bosnia's dysfunction. He wrote that "the
domestic judiciary is not functioning, and that the trust of citizens in the
judiciary is at the lowest level ever." He continued, "No one should be
satisfied when the most corrupt people are free and those in government are
untouchable, at the expense of ordinary citizens. Prosecutors susceptible to
bribery are compromised by political influence and
corruption...Corrupt leaders often ignore the issues most important to citizens:
quality of the work place; quality of the schools; reliable health care; and
rule of law. These are the reasons people are leaving this beautiful country."
Murphy writes further, "Many judges and prosecutors follow the path of least
resistance, self-censoring their work and deciding to process simpler cases to
avoid controversial work, because the system rewards quantity, not quality. This
results in almost complete impunity of corrupt people in power, the big fish who
are involved in corruption at high levels..." [3]
Electoral Law
The controversies about electoral reform continue to simmer, as discussed in my
previous blog entry on July 31. At that point, High Representative Christian
Schmidt had just backed off from imposing a law that would lock in the
nationalist Croat HDZ party's hold on power. This, after a couple of days of
large protest demonstrations by the OHR building. Instead, Schmidt imposed a set
of technical regulations to tighten up the elections. But all is not settled.
Since then, there has been pressure on the OHR from the HDZ party—and from that
party's sponsors in neighboring Croatia—to find a way to implement its wishes.
The idea to set a minimum minority population threshold of 3% in each canton is
apparently dead, but there are other ways to engineer the cementing of Croat
nationalist power in the Federation. HDZ leaders, principally Dragan
Čović, have brought up the possibility of implementing a "territorial
rearrangment" if Schmidt does not bow to their wishes, saying that they have
already begun to design such a plan that would, as discussed before, effectively
create a "third entity."
But it might not come to this if, as observers are warning, Schmidt imposes a
set of electoral rules more to the Croat nationalists' liking. This may even
happen in the next few days—just a couple of weeks before the upcoming
elections.
Under discussion is the threshhold of votes needed in the Federation's upper
house, the House of Peoples (Dom Naroda), to propose candidates for president
and vice president of that entity. Currently the requirement is six votes from a
given ethnic caucus, which allows some influence from non-nationalist Croat
representatives. Commentators predict, based on leaked information, that Schmidt
plans to raise that number to seven or eight votes. For Croat candidates, this
number would only be attainable by HDZ representatives. That would guarantee a
Croat nationalist lock on the position of any Croat president or vice-president
in the Federation.
Circulation of this idea has made activists and others who favor a civic
democracy in Bosnia, rather than an ethnic-based regime even more exaggerated
than what exists today, suspicious and angry. Many analysts have commented that
it appears that Schmidt, under the influence of misguided Western powers, is
favoring the HDZ, or is even in that party's pocket. In a late-August
commentary, Kurt Bassuener of the Democratization Policy Council stated that
"the fact that the West, which has more tools for preventing a dangerous
backward movement in Bosnia than any other country on Earth, is allowing
nationalists and their supporters in Zagreb and Belgrade to determine the
agenda, is pathetic and shameful." [4]
This comment comes after a particularly undiplomatic outburst from HR Schmidt
during a mid-August visit to the eastern Bosnia town of Goražde, where a
journalist asked a question that implied Schmidt was taking the side of the
Croat nationalists in preparing to impose electoral reform. The question
reflected the fear of many Bosniaks, at least, that Schmidt was not defending
the integrity of the country, and was, rather, working toward its further
division. Schmidt reacted angrily, and started shouting,
"Rubbish, that is absolute rubbish!" and saying that he was fed up with such
talk and accusations. The incident made a splash throughout Europe, with
commentators rhetorically shaking their heads and wondering if Schmidt was up to
the job he had taken on.
Schmidt may make his move in the next few days, but it depends on support from
powerful members of the Peace Implementation Committee, which is essentially
Schmidt's boss. Meanwhile, analyst Jasmin Mujanović
has proposed five essential principles for any electoral reform: 1, Electoral
reform must reflect all the decisions of the Bosnian Constitutional Court and
the European Court for Human Rights to date; 2, All future negotiations must
take place exclusively in Bosnia's parliamentary institutions; 3, Such
negotiations must include all parliamentary actors, not only the three
nationalist parties; 4, The contents of the discussion and agreements must
reflect the principles of euro-Atlantic community; 5, The international
community must help in breaking up monopoly of oligarchical, sectarian political
parties that have enslaved the entire Bosnian state apparatus (my quick
paraphrase of Mujanović's
language).
[5]
A Bosnia-Israel Fracas
In the context of the electoral controversies, one Israeli diplomat stuck his
head out a bit too far and created quite a flap in Bosnia. Noah Gal Gendler was
the ambassador to Albania, and his office covered Bosnia-Herzegovina as well. In
a leaked note in early August, the Israeli Embassy "welcomed the Bosnian Croat
proposal of changes" to electoral rules. Given that the Croat nationalist
proposals militate against civic democracy—and especially that they would
curtail the democratic rights of minorities (non-constituent peoples), notably
Bosnia's Jews, this statement provoked quite a furor among pro-Bosnian,
democratically oriented people in the country.
It is too tempting to note the parallel between the suppression of Palestinian
rights under Israeli Apartheid and the Croat measures apparently supported by
Ambassador Gendler. In any event, Bosnian Foreign Minister Bisera Turković
posted a demarche to Israel requesting clarification of the leaked note. Leader
of the Bosnian Jewish community Jakob Finci pointed out contradictions in the
note, which said that Israel respected the Dayton agreement but also called for
it to be changed. Commentator and political activist Reuf Bajrović
said that "It is clear that Israel has a weak understanding of the HDZ," noting
that the municipalities under the control of that party still contain streets
named after World War II Croat collaborators with the Nazis.
Meanwhile, the HNS, a quasi-NGO run by Croat nationalists, launched an
initiative for Bosnia to recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, against
the opinion of most countries in the world. And the Israeli ambassador to
Albania tried to backtrack, saying all he really meant was to advocate for the
protection of the Jewish population of Bosnia, which stands at under 1,000. This
didn't help his case, as the Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a rebuke
against the ambassador in Tirana for his involvement in the internal affairs of
Bosnia. Prime Minister Yair Lapid, who is also the Foreign Minister, said that
the incident represented a "new low for Israeli diplomacy."
By the end of August, Ambassador Gendler was replaced.
Milorad Dodik and Germany
In an unusual move in late August, Serb member of the state-level presidency
Milorad Dodik vetoed the appointment of a new ambassador from Germany, Thomas
Fitschen. Dodik's two presidential counterparts,
Željko Komšić and Šefik Džaferović, supported the appointment, but Dodik
overrode it citing a threat to the "vital
national interests" of the Serb population of Bosnia. He also expressed fear of
Germany's "aspirations to dominate Bosnia."
On one hand, a Bosnian's fear of any powerful country—Western or
Eastern—dominating Bosnia is a rational thing. Such domination has been underway
for centuries, and has only been compounded since the 1990s war (note, for
example, that there is no longer a single domestically owned bank in the
country).
However, this is obviously not the cause of Dodik's unorthodox move. First, he
is smarting from the Bundestag's July 2022 resolution on Bosnia, which
characterizes Dodik and
Čović
as "politicians who wish to destroy Bosnia-Herzegovina." Secondly, Germany has
withheld funds from development projects in the Republika Srpska in order to
pressure the entity's leaders to desist from their disruptive, secessionist
actions. And just as important—as described above—Dodik's move is a calculated
act to gain popularity in the runup to the October elections, when he will run
for the presidency of the RS.
Germany has warned that if Dodik's veto stands, it could hurt Bosnia's chances
for getting candidate status to entry to the European Union. But Dodik's veto
depends on approval by the Republika Srpska National Assembly—and it has been
pointed out that, due to the opposition in that body, it is unlikely that the
veto will be approved. [6]
Criminals in Power
From my "Crims in charge" files:
The list of convicted war criminals holding office in Croatia, Serbia, and
Bosnia is not short. Here are a couple of recent examples.
General Svetozar Andrić was commander of a brigade in the Bosnian Serb army
during the 1990s war, accused of orchestrating the expulsion of Bosniaks from
the eastern city of Zvornik. In mid-August he was elected to the city council of
Belgrade, Serbia. Andrić was responsible for setting up the concentration camp
at Sušica, near Vlasenica. Some 8,000 Bosniaks were held at Sušica, and more
than 1,600 were killed there. During Ratko Mladić's trial, Andrić testified that
Sušica was a "safe place," and that people had been held there for their own
security.
The valiant Belgrade-based human rights organization Humanitarian Law Center
filed a criminal complaint against Andrić in 2018, accusing him of the eviction
of Bosniaks from Zvornik. But Belgrade mayor Aleksandar Šapić, who proposed
Andrić for the city council, stated, “a person who the Humanitarian Law Centre
files a [criminal] complaint against should be celebrated by the Serbian
people.” [7]
Božidar Delić was a General in the Yugoslav Army and was active in the war in
Kosovo. He became one of seven vice-presidents in the Serbian parliament in
August. During the Kosovo war, Delić was commander of the 549th Motorized
Brigade. In the spring of 1999 the outfit was involved in eight military
offensives, resulting in 885 deaths. On April 27 of that year soldiers of the
549th Brigade were involved in massacres in Meja and Korenica, where they killed
over 375 civilians, including 36 minors.
The Association for War Crimes, “Gjakova 98-99” submitted several criminal
complaints to the Kosovo prosecutor's office for war crimes committed in the
Gjakova region. Included in the complaints were hundreds of testimonies from
civilians who witnessed Delić in action, for example, separating people from a
convoy of fleeing Albanians.
Not long after Delić was elected to his position as vice-president, he traveled
to Moscow for medical care. He died there before the end of the month.
Elections
I won't go too deeply into the upcoming elections, mainly because, of all the
material that passes for news, this subject seems to be the most repetitious and
un-promising of all.
Komšić is running again for member of the state-level presidency as a Croat
against Borjana Krišto from the HDZ, and Bakir Izetbegović will vie for the
Bosniak position, against Denis Bećirović from the SDP. Željka Cvijanović of
Dodik's SNSD will run for the Serb position, against Mirko Šarović from the SDS.
Some other liberal and opposition figures will run, and probably don't have much
of a chance.
Nearly
70,000 citizens have registered to vote from abroad. In the last general
elections the figure was closer to 120,000. In that election there was
widespread falsification of ballots and identity theft abroad, with people in
Serbia filling out ballots in the names of Bosniaks who actually lived in the
Netherlands, for example. This year a new requirement of proof of residency
should prevent that kind of fraud; thus the lower number of registrations.
Transparency International and other watchdog organizations have already noted
other widespread violations of electoral law within the country. The Central
Election Commission received several dozen complaints about violation of the
prohibition of electioneering prior to the one-month campaign period. The
Coalition "Pod lupom" (Under the magnifying glass) reported 256 violations of
that prohibition. Some of these were paid advertisements on social media.
There was also much use of public funds for promotion of parties and candidates;
this is preferential treatment, but so far not explicitly prohibited by
electoral law. Meanwhile, public works in infrastructure development and similar
endeavors funded by the government marked a strong uptick in the last two
months, with many ribbon-cutting events ostentatiously attended by candidates.
Government-sponsored development is a good thing, but the criticism is that the
government is doing its job two months out of the year.
People are hoping for the best outcome from the elections, but whether there is
much real choice or not is the question.
NOTES:
1. "Zatočenik logora Trnopolje: Uvreda je za žrtve da na komemoracijama govore
političke bitange" (Trnopolje camp prisoner: It is an insult to the victims that
political scoundrels speak at commemorations." By Snežana Čongradin, August 8,
2022.
https://www.mojprijedor.com/zatocenik-logora-trnopolje-uvreda-je-za-zrtve-da-na-komemoracijama-govore-politicke-bitange/?fbclid=IwAR1SOS-d0b45WUw59hWVouTBRdv1y83jo0rKuD_MbsxelwLzIkg5kb01hoc
2. Bosnia Daily e-newspaper #5370, August 5, 2022
3. "Ambasador Murphy kritikovao bh. pravosuđe: Oni na vlasti su nedodirljivi, a
najkorumpiraniji slobodni, sve nauštrb građana BiH" (Ambassador Murphy
criticized Bosnia and Herzegovina. judiciary: Those in power are untouchable,
and the most corrupt are free, all to the detriment of the citizens of Bosnia
and Herzegovina). Oslobodjenje, September 12, 2022.
https://www.oslobodjenje.ba/vijesti/bih/ambasador-murphy-kritikovao-bh-pravosude-oni-na-vlasti-su-nedodirljivi-a-najkorumpiraniji-slobodni-sve-naustrb-gradana-bih-792033
4. "Bassuener: Schmidt je pokazao da nije sposoban za funkciju i pritisak koji
osjeća" (Bassuener: Schmidt has shown that he is not capable of the job and the
pressure he feels). Oslobodjenje, August 22, 2022.
https://www.oslobodjenje.ba/vijesti/bih/bassuener-schmidt-je-pokazao-da-nije-sposoban-za-funkciju-i-pritisak-koji-osjeca-786148
5. "Rebooting Bosnia’s Constitutional Reform Process," by Jasmin Mujanović
August 29, 2022.
https://www.justsecurity.org/82803/rebooting-bosnias-constitutional-reform-process/
6. "Deutsche Welle razotkriva: Ovo je Dodikova predstava za javnost, njemački
ambasador će dobiti agreman" (Deutsche Welle exposes: This is Dodik's
performance for the public, the German ambassador will receive approval).
Oslobodjenje, September 6, 2022.
https://www.oslobodjenje.ba/vijesti/bih/deutsche-welle-razotkriva-ovo-je-dodikova-predstava-za-javnost-njemacki-ambasador-ce-dobiti-agreman-790636
7. "Bosnian Serb Accused of War Crimes Becomes Belgrade Councillor," Balkan
Insight, August 18, 2022.
https://balkaninsight.com/2022/08/18/bosnian-serb-accused-of-war-crimes-becomes-belgrade-councillor/
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