SURVIVING THE PEACE The Struggle for Postwar Recovery in Bosnia-Herzegovina

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Bosnia update, June 7, 2024
UN Resolution on Srebrenica Genocide ~ Republika Srpska economy ~ Elections ~ Environmental activism

In May, the UN General Assembly passed a resolution to create an international day of remembrance of the Srebrenica genocide. This brings up the question: Does the truth actually contribute to reconciliation?

You'll recall from my previous blog entry that the resolution calls for the designation of July 11 as an international "Day of Reflection and Commemoration of the 1995 Genocide in Srebrenica," to be observed by UN member states annually. The resolution also condemns genocide denial and glorification of war criminals, urges states to observe the requirements of the UN Genocide Convention, and calls on Bosnian authorities to work to find and identify the rest of the missing victims of the genocide.

The vote was originally scheduled for May 1, but was postponed to May 23. This gave time for more countries to add their co-sponsorship to the resolution, originally proposed by Germany and Rwanda. Ultimately the number of co-sponsors grew to nearly 40. It also gave time for Russia, Serbia, and representatives of the Republika Srpska to lobby in opposition to the measure.

In the weeks before the vote, officials from Bosnia and Serbia traveled to New York to speak before the UN. Serbia requested that the word "genocide" be deleted from the language, and then Serbian President Vučić called for rejection of the resolution. Members of the Bosnian presidency Komšić and Bečirović both advocated for the resolution, but the third (Serb) member, Željka Cvijanović, spoke against it. She spoke via remote link, as she is under US sanctions and thus not allowed to travel to New York.

RS President Dodik asserted that "five billion people in the world oppose the Srebrenica resolution." He warned that passage of the resolution "would lead to an accellerated disintegration of Bosnia-Herzegovina." He announced that the RS "will choose peaceful separation, and will propose that to the Federation side." RS Prime Minister Radovan Višković repeated the falsehood that the resolution brands the entire Serbian people as "genocidal."

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, close to Dodik, announced that Hungary would not support the resolution. Chinese officials stated that the resolution was "not in harmony with the desire to preserve peace and stability in the Western Balkans."

Emir Suljagić, director of the Srebrenica Memorial Center, also addressed the UN, recalling, "29 years ago I stood in front of Ratko Mladić, completely convinced that I was not going to survive. Today on the very site of that meeting stands the Srebrenica Memorial Center. I am the director, and Mladić is in a prison cell...We never gave up on our struggle, regardless of the outlook. In 1995 no one believed we had a chance. However, here we are today, speaking before UN."

Suljagić further noted that "hate can be manufactured, and the political and military apparatus exists that can very quickly and efficiently destroy whole communities, ending lives, plans, and families, destroying homes, stopping stories, and interrupting memories."

In the aftermath of Suljagić's presentation, he noted that in seven days some 1,900 messages of threats and harassment arrived to the Memorial Center via tweets, Instagram, Facebook, and other platforms.

On the day of the vote, militarized RS police and snipers descended on Srebrenica with armored personnel carriers, setting up checkpoints and establishing a foreboding presence in the town, ostensibly to prevent a violent disturbance. Police were stationed around Srebrenica with automatic rifles. No reason was given for the police invasion of Srebrenica, but it retraumatized Bosniak returnees and survivors.

Billboards were posted in Srebrenica, Banja Luka, East Sarajevo, and Bratunac stating, "We are not a genocidal nation. We remember." The message was signed, "Proud Serbia and Srpska." In this vein, Montenegro introduced a friendly modification to the resolution's preamble, stressing that “criminal accountability under international law for the crime of genocide is individualised and cannot be attributed to any ethnic, religious or other group or community as a whole.”

On May 23 at the UN, 84 countries voted for the resolution, with 19 opposed. This majority allowed the General Assembly to adopt the measure, but with 68 abstentions. The large number of countries that did not vote for the resolution gave Serb and other officials the opportunity to declare victory for the side of the opponents.

Three of the five permanent UN Security Council members—the UK, US, and France, voted for the resolution, and Russia and China voted against. All former republics of Yugoslavia except Serbia voted in favor, and among the countries in the region, only Hungary and Serbia voted against, while Greece abstained.

But the 68 abstentions were a point of manipulation for those opposed to the resolution, who portrayed the outcome as a moral victory. Serbian President Vučić said, "Those people who wanted to stigmatize the Serbian nation failed and will never succeed."

On the other side, Bečirović said that "the abstentions don't negate the judgment of the UN. Many ambassadors told me directly that they recognize the genocide...abstentions are always for the majority, not the minority. If they had wanted to defeat the resolution, they would have voted against it." And key countries—32 NATO members, and 23 EU members (with one abstention from each body) voted for the resolution.

Bečirović emphasized once again that the resolution "does not pertain to any ethnicity." He added that the passage of the resolution is a "new chance for catharsis." But President Dodik used the occasion to accelerate his drive for secession, saying, "Bosnia-Herzegovina has been brought into its biggest political crisis, from which it will not be able to exit." He announced that the RS National Assembly (NSRS) would form a working group to develop an "agreement about peaceful separation," which it will send to its "partners" in the Federation for discussion.

On the day after the vote, the UN officially confirmed the Resolution, announcing that July 11 will be observed as an "International Day of Reflection and Commemoration of the 1995 Genocide in Srebrenica." There are plans for the construction of a monument to Srebrenica in front of the UN building, to be unveiled at a 30th anniversary commemoration next year.

Meanwhile, Dodik and Srebrenica Mayor Grujičić went further. In a speech, Dodik asserted that "no one was killed in Srebrenica on July 11," and that there had been no military operation there. He then announced an initiative to change the name of Srebrenica town and municipality. Grujičić explained that the idea was justified because of the UN resolution, because of fears that now the town's name will have a "negative connotation, which will discourage investment." Opponents of the idea commented that the goal of the change was "to erase Srebrenica from the map, and thereby from history."

Elsewhere in the RS, opposition figure Igor Crnadak downplayed the entire event, saying, "The resolution was not necessary and it is a senseless document. But there won't be any abolition of the RS, no restitution, and no collective stigmatization of the Serbs. We'll all go back to our gloomy reality, back to where we were before this all started."

I think that Crnadak's evaluation will probably come true. Either nothing will happen, or there will be a war. If there actually is secession, it won't be peaceful because Bosnian patriots will not allow it to happen. Talk of war is useful rhetoric for the politicians, because this is an election year. A similar circus that happens every election year. Commentators say it's a crisis, but there has been a crisis in Bosnia since the end of the war. In this constant crisis, some political leaders know how to raise tensions and then lower them later. I expect that the same thing will happen now: tensions will subside and this will pass.

The Srebrenica resolution notes that the international and Bosnian justice systems "remain central to the process of national reconciliation and trust-building and to the restoration and maintenance of peace."

As it pertains to the Srebrenica resolution, talk of "reconciliation" is nonsense. You can see from my above narration that Bosnia is no closer to reconciliation than before. Internationals love to talk about reconciliation, as if delivering the truth—which in some measure is what the Srebrenica resolution does—will make it possible for everyone to "get along." That is fantasy, as long as the present Dayton political configuration exists. The present political structure works against justice and real stability, as it enshrines the ethno-national division of Bosnia, keeps people divided on an artificial basis, rewards the profiteers and demagogues on all three sides, and prevents the establishment of a civic state. Exposure of the truth is not enough to cut through the entrenchment of the ethno-national leaders.

Probably many international officials know that the Dayton constitution holds Bosnia back, but they make their careers by going along with the status quo and pretending that they care a lot more than they actually do about drawing Bosnia out of its political morass. There ought to be a moratorium on usage of the word "reconciliation" until measures are taken that can make it possible.

RS Economy

In my previous blog entry I mentioned that the RS National Assembly had passed a law allowing officials under US sanctions to receive their salaries in cash. Sanctions had not really affected these people until the US Treasury Department, which enforces the sanctions, warned Bosnian banks that their business could be at risk if they maintain accounts for any of the 19 Serb politicians and their associates who are under sanction. Then in March and April of this year, Bosnian banks began blocking the accounts of sanctioned individuals and institutions.

Among those sanctioned were Gorica and Igor Dodik, the daughter and son of the RS President. Both of them own a variety of businesses from farms to restaurants. Both have changed the titles of their companies and placed them under the names of their spouses or cousins.

People under sanction began withdrawing their funds from the banks and closing their accounts; those who did not, saw their accounts blocked. President Dodik has announced that he will found an independent bank to handle such accounts, but it is not likely that this would be tolerated under the international banking system.

Economist Svetlana Cenić commented that the new law allowing people to be paid in cash is "meaningless," because of the chaos it could create when such a cash-based economy leads to avoidance of taxes and pension contributions.

The state of the Republika Srpska's economy goes a ways to explain the behavior of the leaders in the Serb-controlled entity. The RS budget threatens to go into the red to the tune of some 400 million KM, double the projected amount. In the course of this year the government is due to borrow nearly a billion KM—141 million KM on the domestic market and 810 million internationally.

The RS economy is in a crisis partially related to global economic difficulties. One sector where this has had a serious impact is the textile industry, whose exports shrank by 14% just at the beginning of this year. Demand has decreased and hundreds of workers have been laid off.

Personal sanctions against separatist leaders are not the only ones; several countries have suspended investment projects in the RS because of disagreements with the entity's ethno-nationalist policies. Among these is Germany, which interrupted four projects valued at 105 million euros last year.

One tactic in response to the RS's financial dilemma is to sell state-owned property (including forests and agricultural land) which is legally off-limits to the entity. This conflict between the entity and the state has been underway for decades without resolution. The RS recently sold acreage on Mt. Jahorina to a developer for 41 million KM, but the state-level Constitutional Court nullified this transaction.

Elections

My previous blog described in detail High Representative Schmidt's decree containing many "technical" electoral reforms that should go some distance toward cleaning up unfair practices during the upcoming October municipal elections. In response, President Dodik quickly declared that his SNSD party would form its own RS Central Election Commission and would ignore Schmidt's new rules, and bypass the dictates of the Bosnian state-level Central Election Commission (CEC).

In May, nevertheless, these plans fell apart. First, RS opposition parties announced that they would participate in the municipal elections under CEC direction. This compelled the ruling SNSD to do the same, for fear of throwing the elections to the opposition.

Meanwhile, the CEC blocked the leading opposition party, SDS (founded by war criminal Radovan Karadžić) from participation in the elections. Because the SDS is under US sanctions, its bank account was closed and it opened up a new one in the name of the general secretary of the party. This is a violation of CEC rules, which forbid political parties from having a bank account under the name of an individual.

A few days later, the CEC relented and allowed the SDS to file for elections under a new name, with a bank account under that name: SDS – Volja Naroda (SDS – The Will of the People). The SDS expects better results in the upcoming elections than it has realized in recent years.

Environmental activism

The struggles continue against international mining companies that are destroying land around Bosnia-Herzegovina.

--In the northeastern municipality of Lopare in the RS, municipal officials convened a meeting of citizens to sign a petition against the development of a lithium mine on Mt. Majevica. Lopare mayor Nikola Savić disputed the position of the RS government, which has asserted that local residents do not possess the expertise necessary to make relevant decisions about mining and the environment in their home territories. The environmentalist organization Čuvari Majevice (Guardians of Majevica) called for the part of Majevica located in Lopare to be declared a nature park.

A local politician from the SDS declared, "We are opposed to lithium exploitation on Majevica, but also throughout the Republika Srpska. The RS government is trying to create conditions such that local communities in the RS will not be able to participate in decision-making as to whether there will be geological research implemented in their areas. This is form of centralization takes away power from the municipalities and the cities."

In nearby Ugljevik activists also oppose mineral exploration by an outfit called Comsar Energy, headed by the Russian oligarch Rashid Serdarov, who collaborates on economic matters with figures close to Dodik.

--Mt. Ozren, to the west of Lopare, is also a target of international mining companies looking for lithium. But environmentalists wish to see this area declared a protected natural park as well. The discovery of rare species on the mountain support this cause. Last year a team of 30 researchers from around the region discovered the habitats of rare falcons, bats, and newts that would be endangered by mineral development.

--For background on resistance to international mine companies around Lopare, Majevica, Ozren, and Vareš, see my two-part article published in April, here and here. In this essay I mention the attempt by the government of the Federation to bend the rule prohibiting use of state-owned land. In this case, as I wrote, entity Prime Minister Nermin Nikšić announced that participation of the state-level Office of the Public Attorney would no longer be required in order to approve a “change in the use of forest land or the temporary use of forest land” for “other purposes.” This change in property law pertains directly to ongoing exploitation by Adriatic Metals of land near Vareš. But it also has statewide ramifications.

This change compromises the position of the state on use of state-owned land, which is supposed to be protected from profiteering maneuvers. In response, one politician filed a complaint before the state Constitutional Court asking for an evaluation of Nikšić's decree. In late May, the Court temporarily removed the decision from force pending further deliberation.