SURVIVING THE PEACE
The Struggle for Postwar Recovery in Bosnia-Herzegovina
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Bosnia Update,
Tuesday, January 10, 2023
RS Day January 9; EU Accession; Jockeying for position in new government;
Corruption; Property law
The most recent news in Bosnia-Herzegovina mainly stands out as symbolic, with
the European Council awarding the country candidate status for accession to the
European Union, and with yesterday's bombastic celebration of the Republika
Srpska's founding day. Less rousing, but not much more substantive developments
took place in the process of post-electoral formation of new governments at
state and entity levels, as well as some movement in the RS's attempt to
expropriate state-owned property for itself. The daily reports of corruption at
all levels are the heart of the real (though not new) news along with, perhaps, the
departure of the McDonald's franchise from the entire country.
RS Day January 9
According to reports from local media, yesterday (January 9, 2023) some tens of
thousands of celebrants from around the Republika Srpska and beyond came to
Lukavica in Serb-controlled East Sarajevo, just over the hills into the RS from
the capital city. There, they observed a formal parade to celebrate the founding
of the entity in early 1992, before the outbreak of the Bosnian war. Some 2,500
armed entity police, firefighters, veterans, and members of sports clubs
participated in the parade, along with military vehicles, accompanied overhead
by helicopters. RS President Dodik and other politicians attended and gave
speeches.
Foreign officials and their representatives were present, from Russia, China,
Serbia, and Montenegro. From Serbia, President
Vučić's son Danilo attended, guarded by five armed Serbian policemen.
Intelligence
services reported in advance that representatives of the Wagner Group and the
Night Wolves (Noćni
vukovi), a
Russian pro-Putin bike club, were going to attend.
In Banja Luka the day before, Dodik awarded Russian president Putin (in
absentia) the Order of the Republika Srpska for his "patriotism concern and love
for the RS."
In the course of the parade, marchers unfurled a 500-meter RS flag. Among other
things, it is symbolically significant that, while the event took place inside
Bosnia-Herzegovina, it was on a street named after saint Stefan Nemanja, founder
of the medieval Serbian state, who never set foot in Bosnia. And the procession
culminated at Republic of Serbia Square, named after the neighboring state, not
the entity.
This is the first year that the annual celebration has been held on the
outskirts of Sarajevo, instead of in the RS capital, Banja Luka. There are a few
reasons for this. One is that Boy Wonder
Draško Stanivuković is mayor of Banja Luka, and he hails from the RS Serb
opposition; thus the snub from Dodik. A second reason is that Istočno (East)
Sarajevo is within earshot of the capital, so holding the event there
constitutes an escalation in the annual provocation against the sensitivities of
patriotic Bosnians and their memories of the murderous war.
As a result of complaints by non-Serb citizens of
the RS, in 2018
the Bosnian Constitutional Court declared that the January 9 celebration was a
violation of the constitution. The official reason for this finding was that the
date is a Serbian Orthodox holiday (St. Stephen) and as such, excludes
non-Orthodox citizens. The underlying reason is that it celebrates an event that
led to mass murder and the subsequent domination of Serb separatists in their
newly conquered territory.
Speaking at the event, President Dodik said, "I am proud of this day and of our
people, who are prepared to defend themselves and to fight for freedom. This
Republic threatens no one and wishes no one evil. Everyone who is for peace is
welcome here. This space belongs to Serbs who formed their Republika Srpska on
January 9."
Reporters speaking with RS citizens heard support for the event, thus: "We are
glad this is being held in East Sarajevo; there are many people attending, many
guests. It is all a fine thing. The president is speaking, and we hail our
Republika Srpska, which we created. We will try to create the best conditions
for our entity and to live unbothered with our neighbors, although some of them
do not sympathize with us. We don't prevent them from celebrating the day of
their republic [sic]. We promote peace, love, and well-being...The thing that is
the finest about the RS is that we Serbs are all in accord." [1]
It turns out that it is not only citizens of the capital and not only non-Serbs
who don't "sympathize" with the celebration. Attorney and cultural analyst
Srđan Šušnica of Banja Luka writes that "this holiday has turned into a
commemoration of crime on several levels pertaining to the question of Greater
Serbian goals in the region. It glorifies the domination of might over law and
reason. The militant, anti-constitutional celebration is in fact a seasonal
replay of the modus operandi called the 'creation of the RS.' ...The entire
essence of January 9 is represented by a mass grave, for example, the one in
Batajnica (Serbia) that contained the remains of 744 Albanians, including 70
children. This is the same as the celebration of Hitler's rise to power, which
could be represented by Treblinka." [2]
EU Candidate Status
The above-described "fascist orgy," as one Sarajevan figure described
it, is a particularly extravagant manifestation of the dysfunctionality of
Bosnian-Herzegovinan society; that dysfunction is displayed every day in much
less dramatic ways. One is the grueling, more than two-month exercise in forming
the post-election governments at all levels. Another is the ongoing corruption
which is the real business of most elected officials. I discuss both of these
problems below. But meanwhile, on December 15 the European Union approved
candidate status for Bosnia in its bid to join the EU. On one hand, this is a
sign of encouragement to Bosnia. On the other hand, it can be seen as a futile
gesture on the part of the EU, and worse, appeasement to the corrupt leaders of
the country.
The context in which this decision took place is described as "geopolitical,"
and it is difficult to avoid seeing it this way. Fifteen-odd years of Europe and
the West slowing down or ceasing EU expansion and essentially ignoring Bosnia
left the door open for Russia's expanded influence there and in the entire
region. Then Russia's escalation (not "invasion," since that started in 2014) in
Ukraine started, and the West woke up, or tried to. In June, it granted
candidate status to Ukraine and Moldova (and conditionally to Georgia). Actual
accession to EU membership is a dream for these countries, but candidacy is a
declaration that they are intended to be in the Western fold, rather than to be
reintegrated into a Russian sphere of influence.
The decision for Bosnian candidacy can only be interpreted in the same light.
Imperial competition over the Western Balkans has heated up in the past year,
after simmering—with some ups and downs—prior to that. Now the EU sends a signal
to Bosnia, but how serious can this be?
Head of the OSCE mission in Bosnia Brian Aggeler made the case for the EU,
saying, "Bosnia's elected leaders must work concretely on very necessary, long
delayed and urgent reforms. They must promote the rule of law, good
administration, protection of basic rights, and fight against corruption and
organized crime. They must take positive steps to strengthen mutual trust,
understanding, and respect among communities. Working together, the elected
leaders can bring all citizens into the future with a better standard of living,
which will in turn reduce their exodus." [3]
Mr. Aggeler's statement, speaking for the whole apparatus of EU officials,
surpasses what a professor of mine once called "Alice in Wonderland stuff." You
have to wonder how much Aggeler, and Von der Leyen, and Borrell, and Varhelyi,
and Sattler, and Michel, and all the rest of the EU officials actually believe
that the rule of law, good administration, protection of basic rights, and the
fight against corruption and organized crime are even remotely interesting to
the corrupt separatist, nationalist heirs to the warlords who tore apart the
country in the first place. There's an ironic Bosnian expression: "Ako ti je
dobro, onda
ništa"—If
you're fine, then never mind. The leaders of Bosnia are just fine, collaborating
with each other while keeping their respective communities apart, impoverished,
and fearful.
TK Vogel of the Democratization Policy Council wrote that granting candidate
status would be a mistake, and that it would "undermine what credibility the EU
accession process still has by rewarding the most obstructionist politicians in
Bosnia and Herzegovina," noting that the European Commission "also delivered a
scathing report on the almost complete reform standstill in the
country...[granting candidate status] would also fail the seriousness test since
Bosnia, just like most of its neighbours, has no meaningful prospect of joining
the Union for many years."[4]
Kurt Bassuener, also a member of the Democratization Policy Council, notes that
"a justified feeling of desperation among ordinary citizens is being abused, as
people cry out for anything that looks like a step forward." Bassuener notes
that when countries like Romania and Croatia were candidates for accession to
the EU, they were required to show real results in the fight against corruption,
and high-level politicians actually ended up in prison. However, he concludes,
in the present case Bosnia's politicians are being rewarded: "...progress is
mentioned declaratively, but in fact regression happens, and why should the
politicians change anything when they're being rewarded for regression?" [5]
In response to the European Commission's decision Dragan
Čović,
leader of the Croat nationalist party HDZ,
expressed a feeling of encouragement. President Dodik took it further, saying
that "it is time for the EU and we in Bosnia and the entities, together and as
partners, finalize this process. With that goal I will propose to all political
actors in Bosnia and the entities that we seek financial support from the EU to
receive 20 billion euros by 2027." [6]
That 20b.
euros would be the award to Bosnia's leaders.
Jockeying for Position in Formation of the New Governments
Writing about Bosnian politics is even harder than trying to untangle the cords
of a snaggled earbud headset. There are many threads to sort out. The present
problem has to do with the transactional creation of parliamentary coalitions in
the Federation and at the state level; in the RS, Dodik's SNSD and its faithful
coalition partners have the reins of power fully in their control.
Some parties are in, and some are out, in the game of musical chairs to grab
positions in each of the many "armchairs," as Bosnian commentators are fond of
calling them. This process has taken over two months, and it is ongoing. It is
important background that, while SDA leader Bakir Izetbegović
was solidly defeated in his bid to become Bosniak member of the state-level
presidency, nevertheless his SDA party won a majority of votes for the
Federation's House of Representatives and House of Peoples.
Meanwhile, as I have discussed in the two previous blog entries, High
Representative Christian Schmidt knocked the electoral process for a loop by
decree, gerrymandering the composition of the House of Peoples to favor the HDZ
in another case of the international community's appeasement of Bosnia's
separatist leaders.
In any
event, it developed in December that eight of the more or less non-nationalist
parties joined together in coalition to outnumber another coalition comprising
the SDA and
Željko Komšić's DF (Demokratska Fronta). The
"Eight," as they
are called—but why not the sexier "Octet"?—are dominated by the ostensibly
left-leaning SDP (Social Democrats), the centrist NiP (Narod i Pravda), and the
Sarajevo-based Naša
Stranka (Our Party). Outnumbering the SDA/DF,
they proceeded to sign an agreement on governance in alliance with Dodik's SNSD
and
Čović's HDZ, the two leading wreckers of Bosnia. So much for principles—in
this case, it has quickly become clear that the only principle is the
"armchair."
Dodik proclaimed, "This time, for negotiators, we have gotten people from
Sarajevo who say, 'Let's see what we can agree on.' This is an excellent
opportunity for the citizens to profit, to implement a variety of projects, and
to try to use this new candidate status to get money from the European
Union."[7] Dodik, always with his eye on the prize.
The ostensible reason for Schmidt's post-hoc modification of electoral rules was
to prevent a blockage of government formation, especially at the Federation
level, similar to what happened 2018-2022. In that period, the HDZ completely
prevented the formation of the Federation government for four years in its bid
to recraft electoral rules so that only the HDZ, effectively, could elect the
Croat member of the state-level presidency. This, in response to their outrage
that the anti-nationalist Croat
Komšić has, now four times, deprived the HDZ of a seat.
But Schmidt's new rules allow for a new blockage, this time at the state level,
by the HDZ in cooperation with the SNSD. These two parties command a majority in
the state-level House of Peoples, and thus have the power to block any law that
doesn't
suit them. Similarly in the Federation House of Peoples, now the SDA's coalition
has the majority, with the same power to obstruct. The Federation House of
Peoples nominates the entity's president and vice president, so the SDA/DF can
block the formation of the government there.
As negotiations were taking place for formation of the state-level government,
over the objections of pro-Bosnia politicians and international officials, the
Republika Srpska National Assembly passed a law declaring that all erstwhile
state property in that entity now belonged to the RS. This, also in the face of
findings by the Bosnian Constitutional Court that such a move would be
unconstitutional.
The RS parliament's decision put the Octet in a bind, and in the first week of
January, two of its more principled members left the coalition—at the state
level. They remain, for now, as members at the Federation entity level. This
leaves an even sexier-sounding "Sextet," still including the so very leftist SDP
and NS, collaborating with Dodik and
Čović.
Not only
Schmidt's machinations, but those of the various coalition-forming parties can
backfire. It remains to be seen whether all of the members of the Octet, as it
still stands in the Federation, will put up with anything that comes down the
chute in upcoming government-forming procedures. Will they all be willing to
collaborate with convicted war criminals? Or with officials under indictment for
corruption? Time will tell.
It is hard
to think what the Octet/Sextet think they are going to get out of all this,
other than giving the SDA/DF a black eye. Banja Luka-based commentator Dragan
Bursać
expressed his outrage at the formation of the coalition, writing,
"Believing that
you will build a better country with a coalition with Dodik and Čović is the
same as trusting an arsonist to run your gas station. The Eight's justification
can only be pure stupidity. Because if it is not stupidity, then it is a
conscious intention and then we are dealing with an attempt to kill the state of
Bosnia and Herzegovina."[8]
Corruption
Now let's turn to the real business, as I called it, of the people who are
supposed to lead Bosnia-Herzegovina to a better future in their European home.
The following will be a short list of cases of corruption that have come to
light just in the past few weeks. One could present this kind of account at any
time, because stories of corruption have been available in just about every
Bosnian newspaper on nearly any given day. For example:
--On December 6, 2022 SIPA, the Bosnian State Investigation and Protection
Agency (like our FBI) arrested the state-level Minister for Human Rights and
Refugees, Miloš
Lučić, for
"abuse of position" (read: corruption).
Lučić is accused of using an official credit card for private services, and
taking money from the state budget for private travel. He is accused of taking
private trips, using Bosnian state funds, to Serbia, the Montenegrin coast, and
for a rafting trip on the Tara River. One car that was escorting him was used to
smuggle drugs across an international border. Lučić is also accused of illegally
hiring people, and having his official car serviced at unauthorized garages.
--On December 7, 2022 SIPA arrested Faris Gavrankapetanović, a former director
of the Sarajevo University Clinical Center (KCUS), for joint criminal actions
committed with others in 2011 and 2012, and for "abuse of position or
authority." Along with Gavrankapetanović three others, including a former prime
minister and a former Minister of Health of Sarajevo Canton were arrested. Dr.
Gavrankapetanović is accused of having written false diagnoses and prescriptions
for medicines, which his group then purchased in Bugojno, in a different Canton
from that of Sarajevo.
--On December 12, 2022, two Sarajevo policemen were convicted of taking bribes
in return for influence. They had mediated to have another policeman freed from
jail, for which they were paid 1060 KM.
--On December 21, 2022 it was reported that SIPA sought six people in Banja Luka
for corruption, but was only successful in apprehending one of them immediately.
This pertains to a group led by Jelena Majstorović, an influential employee at
the Banja Luka office of the state-level UIO (Uprava za indirektno oporezivanje/Administration
for indirect taxation). The six were members of a UIO Smuggling Prevention
Group in a regional office in Banja Luka. Majstorović has been head of this
group since 2020.
As part of the work of the group, operatives visit stores and other locations
where people may be suspected of smuggling or other kinds of illicit procurement
of goods. In July of 2018 Majstorović and another suspected member of the
criminal enterprise came to a jewelry shop in Bihać,
where they confiscated, "for inspection," 1,733 grams of gold jewelry. They only
returned part of the items, and 700 grams of jewelry were not given back.
Majstorović does not have a clean record even well preceding the present case.
She had been fired from a bank in Prnjavor in the early 2000s for an unspecified
crime, and in 2005 sentenced to probation. She was hired by UIO, against
protocol for someone with her background, in 2013. Majstorović owns three
apartments in Prnjavor and two in Banja Luka, as well as three garages in that
city. She drives an Audi A6, and her daughter drives a Mercedes.
--This gets tedious, doesn't it?! To wrap up: Husein Rošić, former Uno-Sanski
Canton premier charged with abuse of position or authority for billing the
Canton for 11,250 KM for lodgings and spa services for 30 people; Jasmin
Ćerimagić, former director of the Public Bureau for care of disabled children in
Pazarić charged with abuse of authority for illegally employing his son; Six
police in Sarajevo Canton, in return for bribes, gave out 180 driving permits to
people who had not taken the driving test; Dragan Šojić, director of the Joint
Affairs Service for Bosnia-Herzegovina charged with organized crime, economic
crime, and corruption for using official vehicles to travel to nearby countries
without official directive. And so on, and so on...this is hardly even the tip
of the iceberg.
McDonald's
At the end of 2020, all five branches of McDonald's in Bosnia were closed. I
remember when, in the late 1990s, it took the longest time for McDonald's to
break into the market in Bosnia. For one, the popular corner they had their eye
on in Sarajevo was controlled by gangsters who did not want to deal with the
franchise. For another, it took time for a country whose meat cuisine was
already very well-developed to stoop to such a low.
But it turned out that Western "fast food" had a cachet that was attractive to
Bosnians regardless of the actual product, and by 2011 a restaurant opened in
Sarajevo, and another in Mostar the next year. Later restaurants opened in Tuzla
and Banja Luka. I was in that city when the McDonald's opened there and I
visited the place, to use its very clean restroom. There was a crowd present and
a buzz of excitement. The restaurant there lasted a few years, and the one in
Mostar closed because the owner did not want to deal with extortion.
Analysts are quoted as saying that McDonald's has closed because its prices are
too high for local consumers, and that the competition with
ćevapi
and other local specialties is too strong. However, on the last night in
operation there was a long line of cars at the McDonald's drive-in in Nedžarici,
Sarajevo. One entrepreneur advertised the "last hamburger" on sale for 1,000
euros.
A columnist, neither hailing nor lamenting the departure of the franchise,
described the McDonald's brand as a
"culinary style
of fast food, intensive taste, and debatable quality," also "nutritionally
questionable and often of damaging effects." He further recalls that when the
first McDonald's was opened in Russia in 1990, it symbolized a "new wave of
democracy in Russia and other transitional societies, and the culinary and
symbolic victory of a more liberal and contemporary style of life. Big Mac
became the benchmark and economic signpost of consumer buying power in various
world currencies."[9]
Apparently, Bosnia-Herzegovina has taken a step backward in lifestyle.
NOTES
[1] "Građani
RS-a o 9. januaru: Bili smo stanovnici Sarajeva, sada imamo svoje Istočno -
srpsko Sarajevo" (Citizens of the RS about January 9: We were residents of
Sarajevo; now we have our East/Serb Sarajevo), Oslobodjenje, January 9, 2023.
[2] "Pravnik
i publicista iz Banje Luke o neustavnom danu: Suština 9. januara stane u masovnu
grobnicu..." (Lawyer and commentator from Banja Luka about the
anti-constitutional day: Essence of January 9 stands in a mass grave..."),
Oslobodjenje, January 9, 2023
[3] "Šef misije OSCE-a o kandidatskom statusu BiH: Izabrani lideri imaju ključnu
priliku" (Head of OSCE mission on candidate status for BiH: Elected leaders have
a key opportunity), Oslobodjenje, December 15, 2022
[4] "No, Bosnia and Herzegovina is not ready for the EU," by Toby Vogel, EU
Observer, December 8, 2022.
https://euobserver.com/opinion/156517
[5] "Bassuener: Kandidatski status nije rezultat rada bh. političara" (Bassuener:
Candidate status is not the result of the work of BiH politicians), Oslobodjenje,
December 15, 2022
[6] "
Dodik pozdravio odluku EU pa poručio da će tražiti pomoć od 20 milijardi eura" (Dodik
hails EU decision, states that he will seek assistance of 20 billion euros),
Oslobodjenje, December 15, 2022.
[7] " Dodik oduševljen Osmorkom" (Dodik enthusiastic about the Octet),
Oslobodjenje, January 6, 2023
[8] "Silly Eight and a pact with the devil from Laktaši!" by Dragan Bursać,
Bosnia
Daily, January 4, 2023.
[9] "McDonald’s šaptom pade" (McDonald's goes out with a whimper), by Pavle
Mijović, Oslobodjenje, January 4, 2023.
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