SURVIVING THE PEACE The Struggle for Postwar Recovery in Bosnia-Herzegovina

home  ♦  about the blog ♦ the book ♦ the author ♦ buy the book  ♦  contact

August 29, 2021
Updates: Repercussions of Inzko's anti-denial decree; Response to arrival of new High Representative Schmidt; Corona

Aftermath of Inzko's Decree of Anti-Denial Laws

The past month in Bosnia-Herzegovina has been a time of prepucavanje, that is, rhetorical sniping on the political front, at times resembling a circular firing squad. All of this is the result of former High Representative Inzko's anti-denial decree, which I discussed at length in my last blog entry.

The imposed laws prohibit genocide denial, glorification of convicted war criminals, and naming any park, bridge, school, or other institution after them. Violations warrant up to a five-year prison sentence.

After Inzko's July 23 decrees, the National Assembly of the Republika Srpska (NSRS) met quickly to create laws rejecting them. One law directly rejected the ban on genocide denial. Dodik, as president of the dominant Serb nationalist party SNSD, announced, "I would absolutely go to jail before admitting something that didn't happen, the alleged genocide in Srebrenica."

The NSRS passed a second law prohibiting anyone in the RS from calling the entity a "genocidal creation;" disrespecting the RS flag or other symbols; criticizing the independence of the RS; or calling the Serb people or military the "aggressor" with respect to the events of the 1990s war. These offenses draw a jail term of up to 15 years. All Serb parties—SNSD and opposition—voted in favor of the new laws.

The opposition parties fell into line behind Dodik, characterizing the prohibition of war crimes denial as an attack on all Serbs. Dodik said that the state-level court and prosecutorial offices do not have a constitutional basis in the Dayton constitution, because they were "imposed by an international inquisitor...to exert repression on the RS and Serbs of Bosnia." He added, "This is a contemporary enactment of the slaughter of princes like the Turks did, to decapitate the people. That is what they are trying to do now."

In response to Inzko's anti-denial laws, analysts such as the BIRN news network observed that cases of genocide denial on social media had dropped significantly. And by late August the Bosnian state prosecutorial office announced that it had begun to form about 30 cases pertaining to violation of the prohibition. In this vein, Dodik announced that the RS police will oppose the state-level police (SIPA) if they come to arrest people. This, as the RS police were receiving dispatches—from their own head of legal and personnel affairs—requiring them to implement the anti-denial laws.

Prompted by the RS pro-denial laws, the Bosniak legislative caucus in the RS Council of Peoples filed an objection using the "defense of vital national [ethnic] interest" mechanism. The Bosniak representatives expect this objection to be rejected in the entity's court, and then go to the state-level constitutional court. In response, Dodik called for an amendment to the RS constitution that would abolish the Council of Peoples in that entity.

Recognizing the validity of the anti-denial laws, and responding to a request by the Canada-based Institute for the Research of Genocide, Twitter and Google both agreed to remove from their social platforms (including YouTube) content that includes denial of the Srebrenica genocide.

Meanwhile, people who would continue to distort history found craftier methods of doing so. One such message appeared on a billboard in the eastern Bosnian town of Rogatica, reading, "Nije bilo...mi znamo" (it wasn't...we know). The message was clear in its pseudo-cryptic form.

Photos of the billboard were posted on the SNSD Facebook page, resulting in over a thousand "likes" and at least 500 comments. The owner of the billboard announced that the sign had been posted illegally without his knowledge or permission and that it would be removed. And a member of the High Court and Prosecutorial Council commented that all those pro-denial comments on the Facebook page were potentially eligible for prosecution.

Another flagrant instance of post-Inzko revolt came in the form of the glorification of a war criminal, when early in August, a bust of the World War II Chetnik commander Draža Mihailović was unveiled, by his grandson Vojislav, in a square named after Mihailović in the town of Bijeljina. An encouraging sign of resistance to this act took place a few days later, when local anti-fascists, members of the local association of World War II veterans and their supporters, registered a strong protest against the monument.

As it happened, former mayor of Srebrenica and current president of the town's municipal assembly Ćamil Duraković filed the first formal complaint against a violator of the anti-denial ban. Duraković lodged a complaint against a reporter with the entity-run RTRS (Radio-Television RS) for denial of genocide.

Dodik called this move "persecution," and in the last week of the month eight Serb members of the Srebrenica municipal council submitted a call for Duraković's resignation. They accused him of "successive violations of the RS constitution; inappropriate behavior in the capacity of president of the municipal assembly; and belittling Milorad Dodik [and other RS officials]." The move to sack Duraković will be aired on September 16.

In the course of the month, Dodik raised the level of his insults against Bosniaks to heights not seen before, saying, "The Bosniaks have never achieved anything as a people. They are the most numerous, but they have never done anything for us to create a common state. Everything has gone to become a burden on the rights of the RS and the Serb people." He further stated, "The Bosniaks, they don't have enough people, they don't have the capacity, they don't have the character in themselves, they are a submissive people...they are happy [about Inzko's laws] for one reason and it is a pathological one, and it is just because they are converts who changed their faith."

This diatribe is somewhat out of the ordinary for Dodik, who has in the past attempted to cloak his racism in political discourse, aiming at the Bosniak leaders rather than the entire people.

As I noted in my previous blog entry, the Serb leaders from all RS parties agreed in proceedings in the RS parliament to boycott the functions of the state-level institutions, including the three-part presidency, in response to Inzko's decrees and the arrival of Christian Schmidt, the new High Representative. As the Serb member, Dodik has indeed stayed away from meetings of the presidency and related functions, including greeting Schmidt.

There have recently been several forest fires raging in parts of Bosnia-Herzegovina, including one between Mostar and Jablanica in western Herzegovina. The fires have kept burning in part because the Bosnian armed services did not employ a couple of fire-fighting helicopters at their disposal. And this was prevented because the use of such equipment requires the unanimous approval of the three members of the state-level presidency—and Dodik has steered clear of that body.

In response to criticism about this abstention, Dodik defended himself by saying that the helicopters in question are old and "on the margin of [safe] usability." But the state-level Minister of Defense Sifet Podžić disagreed, saying that "the helicopters are admittedly old, but they have already been used this year for fire-fighting, and that the only reason they are not being used now is because Dodik withheld his consent." In an oblique reference to Dodik's obstruction, new High Representative Schmidt declared that he "expected the responsible domestic institutions to act in the framework of their responsibilities and to respond to the urgent needs of the local communities endangered by the fires."

In concern about the damage from the forest fires near Jablanica, the mayor of that city filed a criminal complaint with the state prosecutor against Dodik for "abuse of official position" for failure to consent to the engagement of fire-fighting helicopters. In the complaint there is the implication that Dodik, in his refusal to consent to use of the equipment, should be held responsible for damage to life and property resulting from the fires.

In addition to the criminal complaint regarding Dodik's obstruction of the helicopter use, Dodik has apparently been summoned for interrogation by the state prosecutor for genocide denial as well. That is, at least, according to Dodik himself, who mentioned the summons on August 21 here. Dodik declared that he had no intention of responding to the summons.

International Community and the Response to New High Representative
 

The reception of Christian Schmidt as new High Representative has been all over the spectrum. Russia and China have reiterated that they don't accept Schmidt's legitimacy. Dodik stated that the new HR was "not welcome," and that "you weren't elected as High Representative, so we won't respect anything you do." He also announced that he was not going to meet with Schmidt as High Representative, but that he would be willing to meet with him "on Mt. Jahorina as a former German representative and Minister for Agriculture."

Veteran Sarajevo journalist and analyst Srećko Latal commented that Schmidt had "inherited a mission impossible," and Latal questioned the wisdom of Inzko's decrees, which he characterized as having created chaos. He also asserted that the controversy had not only revived Dodik's popularity, but forced the RS Serb opposition to rally behind him. Latal's dire conclusion was that Inzko's new laws represent the start of an RS separation from Bosnia.

Taking an opposite stance, Bodo Weber of the Democratization Policy Council asserted that Christian Schmidt's presence will revive the Office of the High Representative as an institution and give new breath to international policy toward Bosnia-Herzegovina after a long period where the West lacked strategy. He also pointed out that Dodik does not have strong support from Serbian President Vučić for his obstructionist strategy turning into a full confrontation with the OHR, so that he (Weber) expects that the crisis and blockade of government functions by Serb politicians will resolve quietly. In my opinion this is plausible, as Dodik has a very consistent track record of orchestrating crises and then winding them down whenever he sees fit.

There are even signs now that Dodik is compromising on the blockade. Several rumors have floated that he participated in a telephone conference with the other two members of the presidency. One opposition figure jumped at the opportunity to blast Dodik, saying that he was a "political convert" and "the greatest traitor to the Serbs," also that his commitment to the decisions of the RS parliament (regarding the blockade) "have the shelf life of yogurt."

Although Weber sees new energy for Bosnia from the international community, he nevertheless stated that Inzko's decisions were "not a reflection of broader international policy." I'm convinced that this is true, as there has been no indication for many years that the West had Inzko's back. Weber states that for Inzko's laws to be implemented, first the OHR will have to rebuild its authority.

On the optimistic side there is Sonja Biserko, the valiant Belgrade-based human rights activist and founder of the Helsinki Committee for Human Rights in Serbia. She comments that Dodik has for years announced the "peaceful disintegration of Bosnia-Herzegovina," which she says, with reason, is impossible. Now that Dodik's position is threatened, Biserko considers, he is radicalizing his rhetoric and consciously pushing Bosnia into conflict, as he has no other exit. Biserko says that Dodik's career is coming to an end and his behavior is risky, but that "no one in the world will tolerate a scenario that would lead to conflict—not even Russia."

I hope that Biserko is right, but I'd like to see more evidence that there's no chance of violence. There are, after all, people who would be happy to see a war that would change the balance of power in the region. We've seen, for example, what Serbia's Alexander Vulin has said about Serbia protecting all Serbs (see last month's blog entry).

Biserko further asserted, correctly, that for years Inzko did not have international support for use of the OHR's Bonn powers. Now, she says, "it looks like the situation has changed." That's another statement I'd like to see proven. I hope that Biserko's evaluation is the most accurate one, of course. Time will tell.

Corona

Bosnia has apparently entered solidly into its fourth wave of Covid infections, with delta being the dominant variant. Meanwhile, just in August a significant number of vaccinations have arrived; China sent a half million Sinopharm doses on August 6, and a couple of days later Austria sent the same number of AstraZeneca shots. Over two million vaccines have come into the country one way or the other. Reports on the vaccination rate vary wildly, but by late August somewhere around 600,000 people have had at least one shot, and over 350,000 have had their second shot. Tables say that some 15% of the population have had their first shot—but again, if this is based on the inflated 2013 census, then the percentage is probably higher. In any case, with a healthy supply of vaccinations, now the task is to get people to be inoculated.  

To respond to this blog, click here to e-mail me.